What is my home worth? Why online estimates get it wrong
Zillow, Redfin and Realtor.com all give you a number in seconds. They can also be off by tens of thousands in either direction — because an algorithm has never been inside your house, and doesn't know about the busy road next door.
Online estimates can miss by
$10Ks
In either direction
Comparable sales weighted to
30–90
Days, at most
An appraisal is
Not
The same as market value
The question is straightforward and the answer usually isn't. Everyone starts with an online estimate, which is a reasonable place to begin and a poor place to stop.
What an algorithm can't see
Online estimates work from public records and past sales. They don't account for condition, upgrades, layout or view, and they can lag the market or miss local nuance entirely.
Specifically, the model doesn't know:
- You replaced the roof last year
- You remodelled the kitchen
- Your house backs onto a busy road
- The layout doesn't flow the way buyers here expect
Those are exactly the factors that move a price, and none of them are in public records.
Five things that determine what your home is worth
1. Recent comparable sales. Homes nearby of similar size, age, condition and features. Sales in the last 30 to 90 days carry the most weight. Older sales can be adjusted for but count for less, because the market moves.
2. Condition and upgrades. Kitchens, bathrooms, flooring, roof, air conditioning. There's a real difference between cosmetic updates and structural work, and deferred maintenance reduces value. Buyers notice both.
3. Where you sit within the neighbourhood. Backing a busy road, backing a park, being on a cul-de-sac or a corner lot, having a view. Two homes of the same model on the same street can be worth meaningfully different amounts.
4. Market conditions. Inventory levels, buyer demand, interest rates, and where you are in the year. The same house is worth different amounts in different months.
5. Buyer perception. First impressions, curb appeal, whether the layout flows, how the home smells, and how it presents online. Less measurable, and it shows up directly in the offers.
An appraisal is not a valuation
People treat these as the same thing and they're not.
| Appraisal | Comparative market analysis | |
|---|---|---|
| Ordered by | The lender | You, through your agent |
| Purpose | Protecting the lender's collateral | Establishing what the market will pay |
| Data used | Closed sales only | Closed, pending and active listings |
| Point in time | A specific date | Current conditions |
| Reflects buyer demand | No | Yes |
An appraisal is one appraiser's opinion on a specific date, and appraisals do come in low. It's built to protect the lender, not to tell you what your home is worth to a buyer.
Closed sales are history. Pending sales tell you what buyers are agreeing to right now, and active listings tell you what you're competing against.
That's why a proper market analysis is more current than an appraisal — it includes the two categories an appraisal ignores.
How a real valuation gets done
Walk the home in person. There's no substitute. Condition, layout, light, what's been updated and what hasn't.
Compare recent sales, pending sales and active listings. All three, not just closed.
Adjust for condition, upgrades, lot and layout. This is where judgement enters — how much is a finished backyard worth here, what does backing a main road cost, what does a remodelled kitchen actually return.
Factor in current market speed and buyer behaviour. How quickly comparable homes are selling and what buyers are currently asking for.
The output is a range with reasoning behind it, not a single number from a model.
Sale price isn't what you keep
Between the two: your mortgage payoff, closing costs, commissions, and any repairs or concessions you agree during the transaction.
Sellers anchor to the sale price because it's the number everyone talks about. What determines whether the move works is the net figure, and it's the one worth calculating before you list rather than discovering at closing.
What to do if you're thinking about selling
Get a professional opinion rather than an online estimate. Use the estimate as a starting reference and nothing more.
Understand your competition. Go and look at what else is available in your price range. Your assessment of your own home and a buyer's assessment can differ considerably.
Know your net proceeds. Not the price — what you actually walk away with.
Price with strategy, not emotion. What you need for your next purchase has no bearing on what this one is worth. Our guide to selling in a buyer's market covers the pricing approach in detail.
Home valuation FAQ
How accurate are Zillow and Redfin home estimates?
They're a starting point and can be off by tens of thousands in either direction. The algorithms work from public records and past sales, so they don't account for condition, upgrades, layout or view. They don't know you replaced the roof, remodelled the kitchen, or that the property backs onto a busy road — and those are exactly the factors that move a price.
What determines what my home is worth?
Five things. Recent comparable sales, weighted toward the last 30 to 90 days. Condition and upgrades, including any deferred maintenance. Your specific position within the neighbourhood, since two identical models can differ significantly depending on the lot. Current market conditions including inventory, demand and rates. And buyer perception — curb appeal, layout flow and how the home presents online.
What's the difference between an appraisal and a home valuation?
An appraisal is ordered by a lender to protect its collateral, uses closed sales only, and reflects one appraiser's opinion on a specific date. A comparative market analysis is prepared to establish what buyers will actually pay and includes closed sales, pending sales and active listings. Pending sales show what buyers are agreeing to now and active listings show your competition, neither of which an appraisal considers.
Why did my appraisal come in low?
Appraisals are based on closed sales, which are historical. In a rising market or one where buyer demand exceeds recent closings, an appraisal can lag what buyers are currently willing to pay. It's also a single professional's opinion on a set date, and the purpose is lender protection rather than establishing market value.
How recent do comparable sales need to be?
The last 30 to 90 days carries the most weight. Older sales can be used with adjustments but count for less, because market conditions shift. A sale from six months ago may reflect a different interest rate environment, different inventory levels and different buyer demand.
What are net proceeds when selling a home?
What you actually receive after your mortgage payoff, closing costs, commissions and any repairs or concessions agreed during the transaction. It's a different number from the sale price and it's the one that determines whether the move works financially. Worth calculating before listing rather than discovering at closing.
Get a real number for your home
If you're curious what your home is worth, or you're planning a move in the next year, we'll walk the property, compare it against what's actually selling, and give you a range with the reasoning behind it — plus your likely net proceeds.
No obligation, and useful even if you're a year out. Knowing the number early makes every other decision easier.